Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 1.915833 2.022698 2.134587 2.260862 2.399891 2.548838 2.721206
2025-07-13 1.775915 1.926831 2.092251 2.288488 2.516886 2.776809 3.098649
2025-07-20 1.693380 1.872286 2.074806 2.323917 2.626238 2.986959 3.459098
2025-07-27 1.633332 1.833310 2.065652 2.360153 2.730529 3.191248 3.825720
2025-08-03 1.560304 1.771441 2.021680 2.346380 2.766524 3.307327 4.084954
2025-08-10 1.497761 1.716968 1.981230 2.331170 2.795529 3.412058 4.335082
2025-08-17 1.439504 1.663721 1.937958 2.307530 2.808894 3.493281 4.556684
2025-08-24 1.387371 1.614983 1.896940 2.282902 2.817080 3.565164 4.769168
2025-08-31 1.351638 1.584850 1.877523 2.284672 2.860099 3.688260 5.073528
2025-09-07 1.323812 1.563206 1.867473 2.297554 2.918295 3.836976 5.437248
2025-09-14 1.281056 1.520293 1.827119 2.265820 2.908760 3.880190 5.625290
2025-09-21 1.240814 1.479093 1.787167 2.232220 2.893608 3.912157 5.795779
2025-09-28 1.197482 1.432936 1.739495 2.186372 2.858665 3.911803 5.911543
2025-10-05 1.182687 1.424099 1.742027 2.212408 2.934666 4.099166 6.414145
2025-10-12 1.171517 1.419476 1.749790 2.245912 3.023885 4.316788 7.018374
2025-10-19 1.161277 1.415555 1.758069 2.280162 3.116149 4.548846 7.703697
2025-10-26 1.136497 1.390826 1.735926 2.267146 3.129793 4.639655 8.089979
2025-11-02 1.112709 1.366703 1.713702 2.252769 3.139868 4.724195 8.479076
2025-11-09 1.087764 1.340238 1.687173 2.230416 3.134761 4.778828 8.805397
2025-11-16 1.063799 1.314485 1.660820 2.207122 3.126435 4.826080 9.123422
2025-11-23 1.048356 1.300244 1.650684 2.208796 3.161476 4.962930 9.721316
2025-11-30 1.036671 1.290931 1.647359 2.220982 3.215631 5.144446 10.503512
2025-12-07 1.013686 1.264971 1.618632 2.190959 3.191695 5.158900 10.780181